Obviously there is no guarantee than any of the speculations below will come true. Still, one application of your understanding of Virginia geography is to predict the future. If you are presenting a business plan to a venture capitalist or banker, or talking to a neighborhood group about to lose its local playing field to a road realignment, or just a voter interested in what candidate to support, it makes sense to project from the present into the future before making your decision. Your understanding of regional history, economic geography, transportation patterns, population trends, etc. can be used in making real-world decisions long after you've taken your last geography test in school...

What Economic Sector Could Northern Virginia Attract Next?

How could Northern Virginia attract a new industrial sector, assuming this area establishes a clear lead internationally as the home for Internet services? The economic recruitment offices are already targeting software developers, hardware manufacturers, telecommunications managers, and biotech firms. What else would match the economic future you might project for the region?

One potential business to attract is the publishing industry. Today, publishing is concentrated in New York and the New Jersey suburbs, where books are printed and stored and recycled after being returned. So long as the industry is dependent upon paper, there is little reason for it to move from that region. There is ready access to a pool of experienced workers, for editing to manufacturing to shipping.

But assume e-commerce reinvents the publishing industry. Sometime in the future, the intellectual property of authors could be distributed through the Internet rather than through paper. Readers might download just the assigned chapters of a textbook. Perhaps they will purchase rights to a whole novel, but those rights would expire in a month. The file could be stored and replayed (perhaps as an equivalent to an audio tape) via whatever e-book tool finally becomes a commercial success.

Then the manufacturing and shipping infrastructure in New Jersey would become an expensive and unnecessary appendage to the publishing industry. The high-value component - attracting and editing and packaging and marketing an author's product - could be located elsewhere, far from the high-cost base of operations in New York.

What would keep the publishing people in New York anyway? There is a critical mass of publishing expertise already there, with all the associated support services - restaurants, coffee shops, museums and art galleries, much of whatever you might consider to be intellectually stimulating is located in New York City. If you want to do business, New York is a convenient - and central - place with all the pieces.

If a second center of skilled personnel developed elsewhere, and there was no longer a physical advantage to being in the New York area, then the other location might gradually attract some of the publishing specialists and some of the business. And in the Northern Virginia region, there is a critical mass of communications specialists, from the telecommunications technologists to the political spin doctors. And though the museums and art culture of the area is far thinner than what's available in New York, there's enough to suggest Northern Virginia could develop a strong e-publishing sector in the economy over the next 20 years.


What Comes After Sprawl?
Evolution of Northern Virginia
Economics of Virginia
Virginia Places